Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7512…0f34 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-15%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$36
tech 14% −$12
sports 13% −$31
world 11% −$21
culture 8% −$14
politics 7% −$13
weather 6% −$13
finance 2% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -20.4% -28.0% 4% 0% -25.7%
≤30d 28 -20.4% -28.0% 4% 0% -25.7%
≤90d 28 -20.4% -28.0% 4% 0% -25.7%
all 89 -17.9% -25.7% 4% 1% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 1% -24.2%
10% -32.8% 1% -31.4%
15% -39.3% 1% -38.0%
20% -45.3% 0% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage305d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30? Jun 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 -42%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -27%
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $28 −$24 -85%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 26 $6 −$4 -75%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? Jun 25 $15 −$13 -90%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $9 −$1 -6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $75 −$7 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 25? Jun 25 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nom Jun 25 $8 $0 -4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? Jun 25 $23 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$3 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $7 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? Jun 25 $13 −$6 -44%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 24 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 $0 -2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $12 $0 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Forsen be the NLC 2026 Winter Split MVP? Jan 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jan 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026 Jan 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in December? Jan 13 $0 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes? Jan 13 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes? Jan 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $10 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $4 $0 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 26 $1 $0 -8%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 26 $1 $0 -14%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 22? Dec 22 $4 −$1 -24%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Dec 19 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 18? Dec 17 $1 $0 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 17? Dec 17 $1 $0 -50%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Sep 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Sep 19 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Sep 19 $13 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 95¢ $29 41m
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 96¢ $29 42m
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 14¢ $4 6h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 94¢ $28 6h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 6h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 6h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 22¢ $6 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 23¢ $7 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 37¢ $4 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 37¢ $4 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 13h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 39¢ $12 14h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 43¢ $13 14h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 47¢ $14 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 51¢ $16 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 54¢ $16 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 58¢ $18 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records