Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7511…a568
world · 31 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$46,835 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78,778 · open −$25,630
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76,570
Realized+$78,778
Unrealized−$25,630
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage61d
Avg bet$64,526
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10,933
14 days+$47,900
30 days+$74,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 74¢ 56¢ $102,177 $76,550 −$25,626 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 64¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $194,256 +$8,112 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $118,562 +$2,822 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9,441 +$453 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $852,385 +$36,514 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $298,143 +$14,619 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $5,561 +$170 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 23 $269 −$50 -18%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 23 $1,780 −$649 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $11,491 −$89 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $24,755 +$1,501 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $11,943 +$1,601 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $29,052 +$4,897 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $47,466 +$4,818 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $12,774 +$430 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $10,000 +$1,111 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $1,200 −$16 -1%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 01 $433 −$34 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $18,727 +$2,742 +15%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $5,523 +$550 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 30 $1,544 +$58 +4%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 30 $544 −$9 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $5,086 +$35 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $2,329 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $972 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $4,647 −$804 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $113 +$31 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $147 −$47 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 100% +$53,309
other 0% −$182
politics 0% −$9
finance 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2,619 28m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $676 31m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $254 31m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $376 32m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $90 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1,566 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $148 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $320 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $31 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1,016 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $277 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1,856 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $166 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $6 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $14 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $1,240 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $372 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $248 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $744 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 15% -5.3%
≤90d 28 +1.3% -8.3% 64% 21% -5.3%
all 28 +1.3% -8.3% 64% 21% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 21% -5.3%
10% -17.1% 4% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 0% -22.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,569.87 · official $76,569.87 (match) · 1583 history records