Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
75 0x7510…4941 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1
sports 42% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.3% +10.7% 55% 55% +1.6%
≤30d 11 +22.3% +10.7% 55% 55% +1.6%
≤90d 11 +22.3% +10.7% 55% 55% +1.6%
all 11 +22.3% +10.7% 55% 55% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 55% +1.6%
10% +0.1% 55% -8.1%
15% -9.6% 55% -17.0%
20% -18.4% 45% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +53%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$5 +224%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +102%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $15 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 82¢ $12 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 65¢ $19 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $21 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 66¢ $20 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 41h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records