Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7510…6cb0 weather 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-6%) realized −$146 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%72W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days−$120
14 days−$215
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$123
other 19% −$16
crypto 15% −$142
politics 13% −$56
sports 6% −$2
world 3% +$13
finance 3% +$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 29% -26.3%
≤30d 182 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 27% -19.6%
≤90d 186 -16.5% -24.5% 38% 28% -19.4%
all 187 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 29% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 29% -18.6%
10% -31.1% 22% -26.4%
15% -37.7% 18% -33.5%
20% -43.8% 14% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 115
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 191
History coverage165d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-37%)
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $145 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$13 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +365%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$4 +29%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$24 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 $0 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$27 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $46 +$21 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $81 −$22 -28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$21 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 30¢ $5 28h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 39¢ $4 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $6 44h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $3 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 44h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 45h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 89¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.35 · official $29.35 (match) · 568 history records