Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x750e…9176 other 8 markets active 19d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,141 (-41%) realized −$2,500 · open −$3,641
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,875per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$8,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$6,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2,500 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8,425
Realized−$2,500
Unrealized−$3,641
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,875
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,000 $2,591 −$409 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,857 $2,190 −$666 (-23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,000 $1,761 −$1,239 (-41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,500 $989 −$511 (-34%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $611 −$389 (-39%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $350 $175 −$175 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $360 $108 −$252 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,574 −$2,500 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $360 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $371 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $680 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $864 19d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,574 19d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,089 19d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,941 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,088 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,424.69 · official $8,424.69 (match) · 28 history records