Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x750d…f7a9 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+0%) realized +$85 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$205
14 days−$22
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 61 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 61 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 0% -9.4%
all 61 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,702
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage30d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $499 $503 +$5 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $499 $501 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $499 $497 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 17 $248 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $496 −$42 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $248 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $501 −$52 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $249 −$19 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 15 $497 −$118 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $248 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $496 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $249 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $497 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $248 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 11 $750 −$5 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $201 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $198 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $248 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 10 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $265 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $199 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 09 $499 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $247 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $496 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $249 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 8? Jun 08 $199 −$37 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $199 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $500 −$45 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 08 $499 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 08 $496 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $501 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $498 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 07 $496 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $500 +$13 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 05 $498 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $498 +$12 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 4? Jun 05 $198 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $370 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 8? Jun 04 $499 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $497 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $498 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $495 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $497 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $500 +$13 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $496 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $455 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $501 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $257 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $368 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $106 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $32 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $6 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $125 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $186 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $150 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $506 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 96¢ $200 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $248 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $500 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $499 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $454 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $246 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $449 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $230 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $361 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $251 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $497 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $496 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $252 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.51 · official $1,701.00 (match) · 179 history records