Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x7506…6996 weather 563 markets active 16h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$298 (+2%) realized +$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate92%516W / 46L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$34
14 days+$25
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$248
other 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -2.7% -11.9% 88% 32% -12.4%
≤30d 278 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 562 +3.6% -6.3% 92% 24% -7.8%
all 562 +3.6% -6.3% 92% 24% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 24% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 8% -16.7%
15% -23.4% 3% -24.7%
20% -31.0% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses516 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 563
History coverage70d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $18 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 92¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 96¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 96¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $9 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 96¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.72 · official $44.72 (match) · 1888 history records