Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7503…978a other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 106L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$25
14 days−$41
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$30
politics 24% −$20
sports 16% −$22
crypto 9% −$2
world 6% $0
finance 5% +$1
culture 5% −$5
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.7% -10.2% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage106d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 95¢ 93¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $421 −$3 -1%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $207 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $185 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $357 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $49 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $490 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $35 −$9 -27%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $116 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $154 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $64 −$3 -5%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $331 −$5 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $757 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $104 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $44 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $64 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 88¢ $38 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $40 7h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $55 8h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $55 13h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $32 13h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $32 19h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 20h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 28h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 29h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $69 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $69 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $45 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $44 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $65 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $65 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $59 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $60 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.13 · official $62.13 (match) · 531 history records