Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
75 0x7502…beaf crypto 1040 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 245d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,496 (-0%) realized −$6,578 · open +$82
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%967W / 65L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,875per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$461est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 245d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$10,859
sports 20% −$11,629
other 15% −$4,114
economics 2% +$2,814
finance 1% +$379
tech 1% +$545
politics 0% −$619
culture 0% −$1,010
world 0% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 448 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 1% -10.1%
all 1032 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$889 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$2,257
Realized−$6,578
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses967 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$461
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1032 / 1040
History coverage245d ⚠
Avg bet$1,875
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $452 $561 +$109 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $472 $401 −$71 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $205 $322 +$118 (+58%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $333 $314 −$19 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $203 $210 +$7 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $159 $155 −$4 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $252 $149 −$103 (-41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $143 +$45 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $67 −$19 -28%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $4,862 −$4,839 -100%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 20 $5,364 −$502 -9%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $1,036 +$63 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $204 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $5,034 +$50 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $4,810 +$351 +7%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 07 $6,107 +$154 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $8,005 −$1,801 -22%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the Apr 28 $3,926 +$118 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $2,567 −$1,794 -70%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3,490 +$803 +23%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 25 $1,649 −$1,649 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Apr 25 $638 −$638 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $3,406 −$3,406 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 25 $4,005 +$67 +2%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Apr 25 $606 +$12 +2%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $715 +$14 +2%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Apr 25 $198 +$2 +1%
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $2,814 +$84 +3%
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Play Apr 25 $2,449 +$266 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 24? Apr 24 $4,371 +$42 +1%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Apr 24 $1,001 +$63 +6%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $3,232 +$75 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 23? Apr 23 $4,190 +$43 +1%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $4,092 +$98 +2%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $3,324 +$23 +1%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 23 $738 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $1,492 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22? Apr 22 $2,533 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 202 Apr 22 $4,218 −$581 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? Apr 22 $1,043 +$17 +2%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $130 +$12 +10%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $1,014 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 19? Apr 20 $3,811 +$24 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2,833 +$76 +3%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1,269 +$51 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 18? Apr 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 18? Apr 19 $84 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down on April 18? Apr 19 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $4,453 +$115 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $5,901 +$52 +1%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Apr 18 $96 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 17? Apr 18 $629 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $99 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 35d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $2,788 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 83¢ $2,074 35d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 SELL Yes 84¢ $4,862 35d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 92¢ $3,103 36d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 92¢ $2,261 36d
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $2,000 36d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Spurs 94¢ $1,036 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,034 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $204 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 93¢ $4,810 37d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $5,059 47d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $375 48d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 48d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $149 48d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 49d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 96¢ $647 49d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 94¢ $5,891 55d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 55d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 93¢ $116 55d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 70¢ $6,204 55d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 89¢ $4,045 57d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 89¢ $755 57d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic SELL Pistons 23¢ $772 57d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 91¢ $2,277 59d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 77¢ $61 59d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 75¢ $1,956 59d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL No 100¢ $2,017 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,256.85 · official $2,256.85 (match) · 3500 history records