Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

75 0x7500…6a08 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$258 (+24%) realized +$320 · open −$62

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-26.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-18.7%	-26.4%	44%	38%	-0.6%
≤30d	16	-18.7%	-26.4%	44%	38%	-0.6%
≤90d	16	-18.7%	-26.4%	44%	38%	-0.6%
all	16	-18.7%	-26.4%	44%	38%	-0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.4%	38%	-0.6%
10% ← realistic here	-33.5%	38%	-10.1%
15%	-39.9%	25%	-18.8%
20%	-45.8%	12%	-26.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late -54% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$40 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized+$320

Unrealized−$62

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage4d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	14¢	$140	$78	−$62 (-44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$160	−$157	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$1	-4%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	Jun 17	$11	+$4	+31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$170	+$72	+42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$34	−$34	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$61	−$60	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$85	+$40	+47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$103	+$303	+295%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$99	+$4	+4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 14	$13	+$4	+33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$39	+$21	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$103	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$38	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$51	3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	57¢	$20	4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$15	10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$9	13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$11	13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	74¢	$11	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$242	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$39	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	64¢	$31	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	64¢	$31	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	81¢	$15	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$124	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.31 · official $98.31 (match) · 134 history records