Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7500…0dec crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%45W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$172
weather 32% +$37
other 27% +$90
sports 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 50% +4.8%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% +6.9%
≤90d 63 -4.0% -13.1% 71% 40% -10.9%
all 63 -4.0% -13.1% 71% 40% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 40% -10.9%
10% -21.4% 19% -19.5%
15% -29.0% 10% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses45 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage79d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 +$19 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $29 +$31 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 −$18 -90%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$82 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 +$14 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $21 +$39 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 10? Apr 10 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 10 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 8? Apr 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 8? Apr 08 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 08 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 07 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 07 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? Apr 07 $153 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 07 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 07 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 7? Apr 07 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7? Apr 07 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 6? Apr 06 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 6? Apr 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 5? Apr 05 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $6 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $6 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $141 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 16¢ $5 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $29 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $2 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $67 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $9 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $69.50 · 180 history records