Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74ff…be5b
other · 129 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,645 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,263 · open −$140
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,168
Realized−$1,263
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses74 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions101
Markets (closed)286 / 129
Avg bet$112
Trades / day618.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 101 History 286 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,058
7 days−$1,263
14 days−$1,263
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 61¢ 50¢ $86 $70 −$16 (-19%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 74¢ 77¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $79 $37 −$41 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 77¢ 72¢ $39 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $11 $35 +$24 (+217%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 67¢ 100¢ $18 $26 +$9 (+48%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 48¢ 69¢ $17 $25 +$7 (+42%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$10 -1019%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$29 +1698%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$28 -1942%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$44 -912%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$7 -21304%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$10 -341%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +440%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $118 +$58 +49%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +58991%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$12 -103%
US recession in 2025? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +361720%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$13 -102%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$103 -265%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$59 +51781%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$28 -204%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$41 -15606%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $0 −$12 -49307%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$78 -3553%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$94 -176%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$17 -196%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$5 -308%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$4 -5925%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 +9212%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$64 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -31374%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$44 +3148%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$8 -297%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$5 -166%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -97%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$5 -143%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $39 +$20 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$234 +5138%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $38 +$388 +1027%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$39 -612%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$28 -342622%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -117%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$116 +122338%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$16 -1407%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$13 +7902%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$64 -116%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$17 -220%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jun 12 $0 $0 +2757%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Stew Peters be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Ye Jun 12 $0 $0 +437%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 20m
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 20m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $13 22m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 22m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 35m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 37m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $5 48m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 52m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $5 1h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $3 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+199.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +230.8% +199.3% 26% 24% -15.3%
≤30d 286 +230.8% +199.3% 26% 24% -15.3%
≤90d 286 +230.8% +199.3% 26% 24% -15.3%
all 286 +230.8% +199.3% 26% 24% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover618.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +199.3% 24% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here +170.7% 23% -23.4%
15% +144.5% 22% -30.8%
20% +120.5% 20% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,167.52 · official $2,167.40 (match) · 3500 history records