Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74fc…a0bd sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62,017 (-28%) realized −$62,311 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%107W / 98L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,081per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,398est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$1,073
14 days+$330
30 days−$3,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$55,240
other 12% −$7,443
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 53% -12.6%
≤30d 173 -0.8% -10.2% 56% 53% -12.0%
≤90d 173 -0.8% -10.2% 56% 53% -12.0%
all 205 -9.4% -18.1% 52% 49% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 49% -35.4%
10% -25.9% 45% -41.6%
15% -33.1% 38% -47.2%
20% -39.6% 27% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,076) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$487 vs −$1,175 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$3,835
Realized−$62,311
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses107 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,398
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage539d
Avg bet$1,081
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 72¢ 100¢ $1,936 $2,695 +$759 (+39%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 38¢ $1,335 $787 −$547 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $270 $352 +$82 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,162 +$488 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,519 +$1,445 +95%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,370 −$1,290 -94%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,231 −$1,092 -89%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,048 +$576 +55%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $90 +$58 +65%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$25 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$28 +28%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,563 +$1,451 +93%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $108 −$29 -27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,959 +$1,036 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,087 −$1,070 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,741 −$1,724 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$21 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,642 −$1,620 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,980 −$1,959 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $851 −$840 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$24 +20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $133 −$13 -10%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$86 +88%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $789 +$190 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $970 −$958 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,006 +$326 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,597 +$531 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $122 −$50 -41%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$3 -4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$9 -13%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,058 +$499 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $188 +$2 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $206 −$20 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $911 +$797 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $949 +$732 +77%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$13 +13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $912 +$456 +50%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1,945 +$1,055 +54%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $806 +$395 +49%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $822 −$810 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $426 +$206 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $949 +$851 +90%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $895 −$882 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $409 −$57 -14%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$45 +57%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $66 +$57 +86%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $300 +$8 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs CITA Kaizen (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $280 −$53 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $244 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $318 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $33 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $157 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $214 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $36 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $76 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $117 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $260 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $316 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $146 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $256 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $95 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $93 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $90 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,834.64 · official $3,834.64 (match) · 1374 history records