Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x74fb…623c other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+12%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$2
sports 13% +$1
world 8% +$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤90d 7 +14.4% +3.5% 71% 71% -3.7%
all 12 +22.1% +10.5% 83% 83% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 83% +5.5%
10% -0.1% 50% -4.6%
15% -9.8% 42% -13.8%
20% -18.6% 42% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage139d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3 +$1 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S Jan 27 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 68d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 68d
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 79d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 91d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 92d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 92d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 92d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 92d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 92d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 92d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 137d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 138d
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S SELL G2 Gozen 100¢ $1 138d
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group S BUY G2 Gozen 90¢ $1 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.99 (match) · 29 history records