Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x74f7…77c3 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 954d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,295 (-10%) realized −$5,931 · open +$636
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%87W / 77L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$153
14 days+$135
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$6,861
other 15% +$341
crypto 8% +$780
politics 6% +$27
tech 4% +$362
economics 2% −$23
finance 1% +$149
sports 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.8% -23.8% 48% 45% -6.0%
≤30d 53 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 47% -9.3%
≤90d 53 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 47% -9.3%
all 164 +8.7% -1.6% 53% 48% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 48% -19.8%
10% -11.0% 37% -27.4%
15% -19.6% 30% -34.4%
20% -27.5% 27% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$190 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

954d coverage
Net worth$2,552
Realized−$5,931
Unrealized+$636
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses87 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)164 / 176
History coverage954d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 40¢ 94¢ $202 $472 +$271 (+134%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 43¢ 62¢ $300 $432 +$132 (+44%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $292 $403 +$111 (+38%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 57¢ 63¢ $300 $331 +$31 (+10%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $200 $279 +$79 (+40%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $152 $239 +$87 (+57%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $151 $168 +$17 (+11%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $200 $98 −$102 (-51%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 78¢ 98¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$37 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$21 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $111 −$110 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $137 +$30 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $142 +$42 +30%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,558 +$266 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$11 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$55 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $161 −$38 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $93 +$60 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $157 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $147 +$37 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $55 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$22 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$43 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$7 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $111 −$32 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$23 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$35 -71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 16 $200 −$35 -18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,552.27 · official $2,551.22 (match) · 894 history records