Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f7…8f31 crypto 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$367 (+1%) realized +$384 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%375W / 62L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$7
14 days−$19
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$452
weather 24% −$71
other 3% −$107
finance 1% +$25
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.0% -3.2% 71% 57% -5.3%
≤30d 23 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 35% -22.7%
≤90d 76 -17.0% -24.9% 68% 17% -11.7%
all 437 -3.8% -12.9% 86% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -8.8%
10% -21.3% 2% -17.6%
15% -28.9% 1% -25.5%
20% -35.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses375 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)437 / 438
History coverage428d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $28 −$3 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 +$5 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 −$7 -31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$3 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$16 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$9 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$31 -59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $142 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$16 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will "Left" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "No Tax" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" during Healthcare Affordability Events? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will King Charles say "Government" 3+ times during State Opening? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Healthcare" in Michigan? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 3+ times in Michigan? May 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $301 −$300 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30? Apr 30 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 29? Apr 29 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 28? Apr 28 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 27? Apr 27 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 26? Apr 26 $300 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 25? Apr 26 $300 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 24? Apr 24 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23? Apr 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 22? Apr 22 $300 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 20? Apr 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 19? Apr 20 $300 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 18? Apr 19 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 17? Apr 17 $300 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16? Apr 16 $300 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14? Apr 14 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 13? Apr 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $36 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $44 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.03 · official $35.67 · 975 history records