Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f7…ef2c other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$272 (+38%) realized +$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$31
crypto 2% −$15
world 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.7% +13.8% 60% 60% -5.4%
≤30d 8 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 38% -9.5%
all 8 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 38% -9.5%
10% -35.7% 38% -18.2%
15% -41.9% 38% -26.1%
20% -47.6% 38% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$59 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage20d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $266 −$263 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 $0 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$117 +77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $169 +$92 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $84 +$85 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 28m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 37m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $169 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $84 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records