Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74f5…7549 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,076 (-8%) realized −$1,077 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$13
politics 36% −$1,089
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 46 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 0% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -18.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -25.9%
15% -27.8% 0% -33.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$546 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$2,521
Realized−$1,077
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage610d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,010 $2,011 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $510 $510 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 16 $2,513 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $680 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,830 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Feb 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Feb 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Feb 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in October? Oct 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $583 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $5,009 −$1,089 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,010 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $510 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,513 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,830 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $680 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 209d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $8 209d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov BUY No 100¢ $3 209d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4 209d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 209d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 209d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 BUY No 100¢ $4 209d
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 BUY No 100¢ $4 209d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 BUY No 100¢ $4 209d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 249d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 99¢ $3 249d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 249d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $6 249d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $4 249d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in October? BUY No 100¢ $2 249d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 249d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 249d
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 249d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,520.75 · official $2,519.73 (match) · 98 history records