Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

74 0x74f1…a621 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$123 (-8%) realized −$114 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+4.1%	-5.8%	50%	36%	-14.1%
≤30d	22	+4.1%	-5.8%	50%	36%	-14.1%
≤90d	22	+4.1%	-5.8%	50%	36%	-14.1%
all	22	+4.1%	-5.8%	50%	36%	-14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.8%	36%	-14.1%
10%	-14.8%	32%	-22.3%
15%	-23.1%	27%	-29.8%
20%	-30.6%	18%	-36.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$44 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized−$114

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage3d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	89¢	88¢	$177	$176	−$1 (-0%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	89¢	68¢	$36	$28	−$8 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$31	+$112	+365%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$64	−$63	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$198	+$2	+1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$141	+$50	+36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$90	−$90	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$96	+$3	+3%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$97	+$1	+1%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$94	−$69	-74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$121	+$24	+20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$30	−$30	-99%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	Jun 16	$31	+$38	+124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$28	+$72	+262%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$35	+$15	+42%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$25	+$68	+276%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$35	−$34	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$75	+$25	+34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$92	−$92	-100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$19	−$19	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	52m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	21¢	$31	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	99¢	$198	4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	73¢	$141	7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$90	8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	88¢	$88	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	97¢	$96	23h
Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	99¢	$97	24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	90¢	$89	24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	27h
Norway leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	21¢	$19	27h
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	95¢	$94	27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$31	29h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	44¢	$31	30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$8	45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$121	45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	70¢	$35	46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$25	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$35	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$28	2d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S	BUY Yes	89¢	$36	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$92	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$19	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	74¢	$75	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.82 · official $203.82 (match) · 40 history records