Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74f1…16a8 other 398 markets active 3h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$112,696 (+21%) realized +$111,649 · open +$1,047
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate40%98W / 149L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,332per market
Trades / day137.6pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$68,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$34,965
other 31% +$2,010
crypto 9% +$282
politics 5% −$167
sports 3% +$11,022
tech 0% +$184
economics 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +13.0% +2.2% 23% 15% -30.2%
≤30d 247 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 19% -3.3%
≤90d 247 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 19% -3.3%
all 247 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 19% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.3% 19% -3.3%
10% +15.1% 17% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here +4.0% 17% -21.0%
20% -6.2% 16% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +93% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$697 vs −$229 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$68,229
Realized+$111,649
Unrealized+$1,047
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses98 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions364
Markets (closed)247 / 398
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1,332
Trades / day137.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 364 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $5,935 $5,926 −$8 (-0%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 1¢ 52¢ $96 $4,473 +$4,377 (+4560%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $3,545 $3,410 −$135 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 97¢ $44 $2,594 +$2,551 (+5835%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $2,502 $2,482 −$19 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $1,874 $1,765 −$109 (-6%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $1,620 $1,718 +$98 (+6%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,375 $1,517 +$141 (+10%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 73¢ $1,454 $1,474 +$21 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 76¢ $491 $1,272 +$781 (+159%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,204 $1,206 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,200 $1,204 +$3 (+0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,063 $1,128 +$65 (+6%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 68¢ $1,072 $1,113 +$41 (+4%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,062 $1,086 +$25 (+2%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,028 $1,056 +$28 (+3%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $914 $1,028 +$115 (+13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 26¢ $41 $835 +$794 (+1940%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? Yes 86¢ 58¢ $1,222 $819 −$403 (-33%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 21¢ $47 $781 +$734 (+1560%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $738 $744 +$6 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 74¢ $684 $733 +$49 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $51 $727 +$676 (+1314%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $678 $713 +$35 (+5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $745 $708 −$37 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 22 $113 −$113 -100%
BPL: Durdanto Dhaka vs Rangpur Riders (Game 1) - Team Top Batter Rangp Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 22 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? Jun 22 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Brighton finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 22 $1 −$9 -1203%
Will Giorgia Meloni be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. France end in a draw? Jun 22 $233 −$233 -100%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oxford United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Brentford finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Lea Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $98 +$302 +309%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14? Jun 22 $88 +$283 +323%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 22 $1 −$9 -1203%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-18? Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Reform UK win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12? Jun 22 $208 −$14 -7%
Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 22 $14 +$135 +980%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 22 $11 −$268 -2516%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,082 −$2,082 -100%
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15? Jun 22 $92 +$274 +297%
Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in th Jun 22 $194 −$212 -109%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $449 −$795 -177%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $165 −$149 -90%
Will Trump say "Too late" during Fed chair announcement? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $1,836 −$400 -22%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 96¢ $17 2h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $61 2h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 94¢ $193 2h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 98¢ $185 3h
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? BUY No 97¢ $144 3h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY No 63¢ $94 3h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 3h
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $22 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $67 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $48 3h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL Yes 0¢ $21 4h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,741 4h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,006 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $980 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $980 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,229.41 · official $68,221.70 (match) · 3500 history records