Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ee…2fe3 other 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 246L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 23% −$21
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$16
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage136d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $579 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $272 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $739 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $392 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $278 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $417 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $452 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $421 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $308 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $274 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $993 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 18m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 3h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 9h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 10h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 15h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $11 15h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 17h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 22h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 24h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 25h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 27h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 28h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 29h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 34h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 36h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 45h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records