Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x74ed…67fb other 24 markets active 3d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-27%) realized −$107 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$31
world 22% −$61
politics 17% −$32
sports 5% +$11
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 57% 57% +16.9%
≤30d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 57% 57% +16.9%
≤90d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 57% 57% +16.9%
all 18 -22.3% -29.7% 28% 28% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 28% -35.9%
10% -36.4% 22% -42.0%
15% -42.6% 22% -47.6%
20% -48.2% 17% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage156d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $42 −$12 -28%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Feb 01 $89 −$4 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 18 $33 +$6 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $32 −$20 -62%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 16 $30 −$9 -30%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? Jan 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 38¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 93d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes $1 128d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho SELL No $0 128d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 26¢ $4 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 129d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 129d
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 136d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? SELL No 57¢ $38 136d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? BUY No 59¢ $39 150d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $32.50 (match) · 55 history records