Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x74ec…0959 crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,457 (-4%) realized −$2,893 · open +$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%115W / 73L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$768
7 days+$768
14 days+$721
30 days−$3,142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$1,111
sports 31% −$2,286
other 3% +$1,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.0% -20.3% 61% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 74 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 49% -18.1%
≤90d 188 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 47% -12.4%
all 188 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 47% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 47% -12.4%
10% -20.0% 37% -20.8%
15% -27.7% 28% -28.4%
20% -34.8% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$245 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized−$2,893
Unrealized+$436
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses115 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage37d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $577 $1,013 +$436 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $310 −$310 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $797 +$108 +14%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $204 +$145 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $260 +$251 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $208 +$173 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $202 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $1,877 +$1,334 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $621 +$429 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $710 −$710 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $592 −$592 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $663 −$663 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $359 +$134 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $310 +$200 +64%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $257 +$230 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $736 +$90 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $288 −$271 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $1,442 +$208 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $204 +$46 +23%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 27 $3,794 +$601 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,126 +$1,668 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $643 −$643 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $586 +$58 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $573 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $126 −$126 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $173 −$47 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$9 +17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 06 $885 −$885 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $2,953 −$2,953 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) May 30 $718 +$167 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 29 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $12 +$4 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $372 −$372 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 29 $234 −$222 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 29 $200 +$172 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 May 29 $216 −$16 -7%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $279 −$63 -23%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 May 29 $193 +$86 +45%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 May 29 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $107 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $245 +$68 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 28 $259 −$14 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $80 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $499 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $27 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $53 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $73 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $131 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $905 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $188 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 17m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $349 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $204 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $203 24m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $380 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $849 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $816 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $917 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $106 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.60 · official $931.18 · 537 history records