Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x74eb…8cd7 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$480 (+39%) realized +$470 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$453
7 days+$470
14 days+$470
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$220
sports 24% +$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +54.6% +39.9% 54% 54% +49.6%
≤30d 13 +54.6% +39.9% 54% 54% +49.6%
≤90d 13 +54.6% +39.9% 54% 54% +49.6%
all 13 +54.6% +39.9% 54% 54% +49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.9% 54% +49.6%
10% +26.5% 54% +35.3%
15% +14.3% 54% +22.2%
20% +3.1% 46% +10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$32 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$470
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $250 $281 +$31 (+13%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $250 $221 −$29 (-12%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $238 +$130 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 +$106 +164%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$245 +478%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 +$57 +246%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 −$22 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$44 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$14 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $255 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $210 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $292 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 31h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 31h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $81 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.55 · official $504.61 (match) · 30 history records