Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ea…b265 weather 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$499 (+5%) realized +$301 · open +$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%141W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$723
14 days+$622
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$386
sports 9% +$568
other 7% +$231
crypto 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +59.8% +44.6% 94% 94% +56.4%
≤30d 35 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 57% +40.0%
≤90d 300 -16.3% -24.3% 44% 34% -3.7%
all 387 -25.5% -32.6% 36% 29% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 29% -6.2%
10% -39.0% 25% -15.1%
15% -44.9% 22% -23.3%
20% -50.3% 19% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,074
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses141 / 246
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)387 / 393
History coverage97d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $423 $410 −$13 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 76¢ $96 $153 +$57 (+59%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $103 $146 +$42 (+41%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 47¢ 48¢ $141 $146 +$4 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $60 $120 +$60 (+100%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $52 $100 +$48 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$83 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 +$104 +108%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 +$104 +108%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 +$115 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 +$38 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $134 +$166 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 21 Apr 22 $60 +$22 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21 Apr 22 $18 +$32 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21? Apr 22 $75 +$20 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 22 $29 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 21 Apr 22 $28 −$25 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 19? Apr 21 $2 +$5 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 21 $13 +$6 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 19? Apr 21 $12 +$10 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19 Apr 21 $24 +$10 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 21 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20? Apr 21 $70 −$65 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 21 $7 +$18 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 21 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 19 Apr 21 $45 +$47 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $97 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $143 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $119 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $96 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $96 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $47 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $85 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $434 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $134 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $48 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 63¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 87¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 71¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,073.53 · official $1,069.22 (match) · 2038 history records