Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74ea…90a7
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$2 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 4 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% +$2
politics 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 17h
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% +18.0%
≤30d 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% +18.0%
≤90d 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% +18.0%
all 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 50% +18.0%
10% -41.4% 50% +6.7%
15% -47.0% 50% -3.6%
20% -52.2% 0% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.84 (match) · 7 history records