Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

74 0x74e7…c6cc sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$148 (+15%) realized +$204 · open −$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown88%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-5.6%	-14.6%	48%	43%	+6.3%
≤30d	23	-5.6%	-14.6%	48%	43%	+6.3%
≤90d	23	-5.6%	-14.6%	48%	43%	+6.3%
all	23	-5.6%	-14.6%	48%	43%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.6%	43%	+6.3%
10%	-22.8%	39%	-3.9%
15%	-30.2%	39%	-13.1%
20%	-37.1%	39%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized+$204

Unrealized−$56

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage4d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown88%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	30¢	$100	$44	−$56 (-56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$274	+$33	+12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$107	+105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$10	+$9	+93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	+$37	+73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$114	−$114	-100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$111	+$107	+97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$15	+$19	+124%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$10	+$12	+116%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists	Jun 16	$10	+$21	+209%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$20	+$28	+139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$39	+$37	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$274	24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$30	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$208	41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$15	47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$88	47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$51	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$20	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$218	3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$111	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$114	3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$22	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	3d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	3d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists	SELL Yes	89¢	$32	3d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	44¢	$15	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$49	3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$5	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.03 · official $44.03 (match) · 53 history records