Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x74e6…99e8 world 532 markets active 13h ago coverage 235d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 235d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,768 (+4%) realized +$5,089 · open +$1,679
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%299W / 215L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,748
14 days−$2,574
30 days−$4,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$5,516
politics 17% +$2,105
other 12% +$1,553
sports 6% +$6,476
economics 4% +$433
crypto 4% +$747
tech 1% −$357
culture 1% +$117
finance 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 40% -19.8%
≤30d 82 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 24% -14.1%
≤90d 187 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 30% -8.8%
all 514 +5.6% -4.4% 58% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 35% -9.3%
10% -13.6% 25% -18.0%
15% -21.9% 20% -25.9%
20% -29.6% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$114 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$6,637
Realized+$5,089
Unrealized+$1,679
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses299 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions21
Markets (closed)514 / 532
History coverage235d ⚠
Avg bet$317
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $2,232 $2,789 +$558 (+25%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $470 $928 +$457 (+97%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 39¢ $280 $781 +$501 (+179%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 25¢ $560 $347 −$212 (-38%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $232 $326 +$94 (+41%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 64¢ $148 $253 +$105 (+71%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 6¢ 46¢ $33 $246 +$214 (+656%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $202 $243 +$41 (+20%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 31¢ 23¢ $310 $230 −$80 (-26%)
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026? No 40¢ 41¢ $193 $198 +$5 (+3%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 66¢ 90¢ $132 $179 +$47 (+36%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 40¢ 91¢ $35 $80 +$45 (+127%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Yes 81¢ 20¢ $32 $8 −$24 (-75%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-82%)
Will Jaleel Amador be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will Megan Rodriguez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will James Felton Keith be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $634 +$29 +4%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 14 $1,360 +$136 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,568 −$5 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,245 +$225 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,859 −$1,361 -35%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $399 +$190 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $213 +$103 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $178 +$80 +45%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,467 +$198 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $225 +$8 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $796 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $323 −$323 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $198 −$165 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $2,768 −$914 -33%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $218 +$52 +24%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 07 $993 +$34 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $1,070 +$12 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $339 −$331 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $494 −$398 -80%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 06 $570 −$570 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,950 +$612 +12%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $203 −$194 -96%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 03 $998 +$9 +1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 03 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $335 −$304 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,496 −$1,252 -50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $744 −$228 -31%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $89 +$35 +39%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $2,209 +$310 +14%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $1,160 +$40 +3%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 30 $0 $0 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $87 −$16 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $270 −$270 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 30 $338 +$126 +37%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 30 $108 +$20 +19%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 30 $484 +$197 +41%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $1,299 −$788 -61%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 30 $174 +$20 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $910 +$90 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $210 −$21 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1,763 +$130 +7%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $766 +$32 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $600 −$195 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $1,092 −$180 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $415 −$305 -73%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $425 +$162 +38%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $390 −$330 -85%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $167 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $663 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $29 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $570 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $634 2d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $634 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,563 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 97¢ $1,563 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1,568 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $1,470 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 83¢ $1,001 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 83¢ $244 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $579 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $215 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $100 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $90 2d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $22 2d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $420 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $150 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $246 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,636.84 · official $6,637.49 (match) · 3500 history records