Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74e3…8b3c weather 95 markets active 17h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%16W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$16
other 8% +$3
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 33 -2.3% -11.6% 18% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 95 -26.9% -33.8% 17% 0% -11.6%
all 95 -26.9% -33.8% 17% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 0% -11.6%
10% -40.2% 0% -20.0%
15% -46.0% 0% -27.8%
20% -51.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses16 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 Wor Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 17? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6 May 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1 May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15? May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 14? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jim Baird be the Republican nominee for IN-04? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 4? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 92¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $14 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.99 · official $55.99 (match) · 293 history records