Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x74e2…2767 world 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 10% −$1
sports 10% $0
politics 7% $0
culture 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +44.1% +30.4% 67% 67% -7.4%
≤90d 3 +44.1% +30.4% 67% 67% -7.4%
all 11 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 18% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 18% -10.3%
10% -15.8% 18% -18.9%
15% -24.0% 9% -26.7%
20% -31.4% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage461d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $32 24d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 329d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 38¢ $8 357d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 42¢ $3 378d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 42¢ $6 378d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 97¢ $1 422d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 97¢ $9 426d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1 436d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 456d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 458d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? BUY Yes $1 458d
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? BUY Yes $0 458d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $12 460d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $12 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.64 · official $40.66 (match) · 27 history records