Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74e0…af4b other 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,895 (-30%) realized −$13,857 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%92W / 331L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$739
other 19% −$1,391
world 10% +$56
sports 8% +$141
politics 5% −$135
culture 4% −$268
finance 2% −$64
tech 2% −$156
weather 0% −$36
economics 0% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -4.6% -13.7% 25% 6% -12.9%
≤30d 309 -13.0% -21.3% 25% 3% -12.5%
≤90d 423 -11.0% -19.5% 22% 4% -14.3%
all 423 -11.0% -19.5% 22% 4% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 4% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 4% -22.5%
15% -34.2% 3% -30.0%
20% -40.7% 3% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$16 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$13,857
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses92 / 331
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)423 / 426
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ $43 $4 −$38 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $46 −$5 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$7 -4%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $117 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$7 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $13 +$73 +546%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$12 -6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $144 +$145 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $129 −$116 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $171 −$51 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$64 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -28%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Bruno Guimaraes be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -48%
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $96 −$18 -19%
Will Gabriel Martinelli be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Will 8+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $23 −$8 -34%
Will Ibrahim Sangaré score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 −$3 -5%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 12 $102 −$22 -22%
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -82%
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $77 −$23 -30%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 12 $81 −$2 -3%
Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $39 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 3500 history records