Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74e0…47d8 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$102 (-4%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day119.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$27
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$11
other 27% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 16% -8.7%
≤30d 85 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 16% -8.6%
≤90d 85 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 16% -8.6%
all 85 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 16% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 16% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 13% -17.4%
15% -34.2% 8% -25.4%
20% -40.6% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day119.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $45 +$25 +56%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$117 +1174%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $156 −$2 -2%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $85 −$9 -10%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $18 −$3 -19%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 −$15 -38%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $45 −$12 -26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $60 −$25 -42%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $10 −$2 -16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $55 −$16 -28%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $21 +$5 +22%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 +$10 +68%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $148 −$11 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $81 −$5 -6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $43 +$26 +62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $70 −$6 -8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $35 −$1 -2%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$7 -23%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $69 −$28 -41%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $5 −$2 -36%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $78 −$11 -14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $75 −$2 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $54 +$18 +33%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 −$7 -34%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $111 +$1 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$1 -3%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$11 -53%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $127 43m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 6¢ $5 46m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $5 48m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 49m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 85¢ $25 54m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 85¢ $5 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 84¢ $5 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 84¢ $5 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $5 55m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 64¢ $5 56m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 85¢ $5 56m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 63¢ $5 56m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 62¢ $5 57m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 61¢ $5 57m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 58m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 58m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 58m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 58m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 76¢ $24 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 80¢ $5 59m
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $5 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 882 history records