Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74df…3177 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate79%45W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6
crypto 9% +$3
tech 2% $0
other 2% $0
politics 2% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 +0.3% -9.2% 79% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses45 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage536d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $40 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $5,482 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $16 +$2 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 21 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 122d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 122d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 151d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $37 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $38 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 273d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 365d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.50 · official $50.50 (match) · 121 history records