Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74de…cd42 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$3
other 35% $0
sports 25% −$4
finance 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.2% -35.0% 26% 21% -27.5%
≤30d 19 -28.2% -35.0% 26% 21% -27.5%
≤90d 19 -28.2% -35.0% 26% 21% -27.5%
all 54 -12.3% -20.7% 41% 35% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 35% -18.4%
10% -28.2% 26% -26.2%
15% -35.2% 19% -33.3%
20% -41.5% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage144d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 01 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 01 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -68%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 01 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$2 +186%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Predators Jan 24 $1 +$1 +84%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Alter Ego (BO5) - Wor Jan 24 $1 $0 +18%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Jan 24 $1 $0 +17%
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Jan 24 $2 $0 +15%
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams Jan 24 $3 −$1 -44%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 24? Jan 24 $1 $0 -32%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Alter Ego (BO5) - World Ch Jan 24 $1 $0 -28%
Blues vs. Stars Jan 24 $1 $0 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Jan 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 24 Jan 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1PM ET Jan 23 $4 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 23 $1 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $1 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND SELL 31¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 33¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 30¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL 22¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 23¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.20 · official $6.20 (match) · 120 history records