Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x74dc…aeb4 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$30 (+15%) realized +$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$24
sports 46% +$53
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 56% +13.0%
≤30d 9 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 56% +13.0%
≤90d 9 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 56% +13.0%
all 9 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 56% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 56% +13.0%
10% +4.3% 56% +2.2%
15% -5.8% 44% -7.7%
20% -15.0% 44% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.27 · official $73.27 (match) · 23 history records