Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x74d9…ad7e other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+5%) realized +$121 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$37
other 32% +$45
crypto 6% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 3 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤90d 3 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -4.9%
all 3 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 0% -4.9%
10% -14.6% 0% -14.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -22.3%
20% -30.4% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,579
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $2,042 $2,085 +$43 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 86¢ 86¢ $342 $346 +$4 (+1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 80¢ $99 $93 −$6 (-6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 90¢ 96¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 74¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 19 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 19 $699 +$37 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,579.49 · official $2,579.49 (match) · 17 history records