Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74d8…3e59
sports · 25 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage411d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Aug 29 $1 +$7 +669%
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? Jul 29 $1 −$1 -72%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025? Jul 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 14 $2 +$2 +121%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 03 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Jul 03 $2 +$1 +43%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +44%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% $0
sports 28% −$2
other 25% −$9
politics 11% +$7
culture 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 59¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 58¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 59¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 84¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $1 3d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 105d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 171d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 244d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 244d
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? SELL Yes $0 320d
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY Yes 12¢ $1 324d
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 334d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025? BUY Yes $1 335d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? SELL No 97¢ $3 335d
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? BUY Yes $1 338d
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 340d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? BUY No 44¢ $2 345d
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 68¢ $3 355d
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? BUY No 70¢ $2 355d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? SELL No 94¢ $2 355d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? SELL No 97¢ $3 373d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 404d
India military action against Pakistan before June? BUY No 34¢ $1 410d
Elon out of Trump administration before July? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 43% -34.1%
≤30d 7 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 43% -34.1%
≤90d 7 -34.7% -40.9% 43% 43% -34.1%
all 24 -7.0% -15.9% 38% 38% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -25.6%
10% -23.9% 33% -32.7%
15% -31.3% 29% -39.2%
20% -38.0% 21% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.65 · official $1.65 (match) · 48 history records