Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74d8…eb49
crypto · 202 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$152 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$226
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses178 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)195 / 202
History coverage39d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 7 History 195 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$18
14 days−$263
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 93¢ 93¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 82¢ $56 $49 −$7 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 93¢ 97¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 +$4 +4%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$20 -67%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $35 +$2 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$6 -85%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $27 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $24 +$2 +9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $34 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $73 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 11 $68 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $31 −$8 -27%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $67 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$1 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$2 +8%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $34 +$2 +6%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$2 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +5%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +4%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 08 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $88 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 33% +$43
other 30% −$42
sports 13% −$8
world 10% +$57
weather 7% −$13
politics 3% +$16
finance 2% +$15
culture 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 29m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $23 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 6h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $28 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $28 7h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 7h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 31¢ $10 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 98¢ $13 8h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 92¢ $30 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 98¢ $1 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 98¢ $69 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $12 10h
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 3¢ $0 12h
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 3¢ $0 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $26 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $3 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $18 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $37 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $16 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $16 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -5.9% -14.8% 85% 7% -10.3%
≤30d 164 -1.1% -10.5% 90% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 195 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 5% -8.9%
all 195 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.68 · official $224.69 (match) · 3500 history records