Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74d7…b1c3 politics 109 markets active 5d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-13%) realized −$59 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%55W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$7
other 29% −$1
economics 12% −$66
finance 11% −$1
world 8% +$4
sports 2% −$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 54% -4.1%
≤30d 26 -2.7% -11.9% 65% 46% -8.6%
≤90d 87 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 43% -21.1%
all 87 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 43% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 43% -21.1%
10% -21.8% 25% -28.7%
15% -29.3% 13% -35.6%
20% -36.2% 9% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses55 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)87 / 109
History coverage73d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 74¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Obama arrested before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 91¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 35¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 61¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +33%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? May 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? May 27 $2 $0 +19%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $1 $0 +23%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 27 $2 +$1 +33%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? May 27 $10 −$7 -68%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will King Charles's remarks not air? Apr 29 $2 $0 +6%
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? Apr 27 $1 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 23 $2 −$1 -64%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 23 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in Apr 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 21 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 21 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec Apr 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” Apr 20 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 19 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 19 $1 $0 +20%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Apr 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Apr 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? Apr 18 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $10 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 92¢ $6 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 6d
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 11d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL No 56¢ $2 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 11d
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $5 20d
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 21d
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 21d
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 21d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $5 26d
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 51d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 51d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 52d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 53d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.99 · official $52.99 (match) · 274 history records