Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74d4…8fcd crypto 251 markets active 2d ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$225 (+29%) realized +$124 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%65W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$17
14 days+$23
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$31
crypto 24% −$19
world 15% −$25
sports 14% −$41
politics 7% +$48
economics 5% +$32
tech 4% −$1
finance 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +91.4% +73.2% 20% 20% +116.5%
≤30d 39 -26.0% -33.1% 21% 21% -53.7%
≤90d 57 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 26% -20.6%
all 219 -11.5% -20.0% 30% 29% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -18.3%
10% -27.6% 24% -26.2%
15% -34.6% 21% -33.3%
20% -41.0% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses65 / 154
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)219 / 251
History coverage200d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ $2 $45 +$44 (+2917%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 36¢ $1 $44 +$43 (+3049%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 12¢ 94¢ $5 $39 +$34 (+679%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 17¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+478%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+53%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+117%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 20¢ $10 $4 −$7 (-65%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-63%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 17¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 11 $3 +$27 +857%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 +$6 +180%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Costa Rica? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 01 $4 +$6 +152%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Jordan? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Jordan? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Iceland? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 19.5 May 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Faria vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 38.5 May 31 $4 +$1 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $6 +$3 +44%
Exact Score: Santos FC 3 - 0 EC Vitória? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to Score May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Faria vs Tiafoe May 30 $14 −$4 -31%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$9 +614%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5) May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 40.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $41 −$3 -7%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Jaime Faria vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 30 $3 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 12 $2 +$12 +596%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? May 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April? May 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $3 46h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No $4 46h
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $0 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No $1 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 35¢ $3 15d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Costa Rica? BUY Yes $1 15d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Costa Rica? BUY Yes $1 15d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Costa Rica? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 15d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Costa Rica 32¢ $4 15d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $3 15d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Madagascar 32¢ $6 15d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $1 17d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17d
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Iceland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17d
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw? BUY No $1 17d
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw? BUY No 12¢ $4 17d
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.10 · official $230.86 (match) · 615 history records