Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74d3…23f2 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-8%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$27
sports 31% −$17
other 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.1% +4.2% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 2 +15.1% +4.2% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 100 -6.1% -15.1% 43% 40% -21.1%
all 100 -6.1% -15.1% 43% 40% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 40% -21.1%
10% -23.2% 39% -28.6%
15% -30.6% 35% -35.5%
20% -37.4% 32% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 −$6 -37%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 16 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 16 $2 +$5 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $8 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $1 +$3 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer May 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 14 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 37¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $15 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $8 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Nor BUY 20¢ $5 14h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $15 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $8 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 32d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) SELL Cavaliers 3¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 222 history records