Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x74cf…cf82 other 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,215 (-1%) realized −$2,215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 142L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$915per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$172
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$79
politics 33% −$61
sports 12% −$2,092
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 -11.5% -20.0% 6% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 114 -16.9% -24.8% 4% 0% -11.5%
all 165 -6.5% -15.4% 14% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 6% -10.9%
10% -23.5% 5% -19.4%
15% -30.9% 4% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,309) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$975
Realized−$2,215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage154d
Avg bet$915
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $673 $673 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,173 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $747 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $688 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $191 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $302 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $492 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,472 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $827 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $750 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $3,152 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,730 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $673 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $512 42h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $513 43h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $471 43h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 45h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $622 45h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $623 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $666 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $667 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $613 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $614 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $302 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $816 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $817 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $749 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $751 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $710 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $727 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $726 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $727 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $704 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $705 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $82 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $674 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.63 · official $974.63 (match) · 528 history records