Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ce…bbdf crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$198 (-5%) realized +$182 · open −$380
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$247
14 days−$622
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$495
finance 21% −$362
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +46.1% +32.2% 14% 14% +26.0%
≤30d 24 -11.5% -20.0% 25% 25% -29.9%
≤90d 25 -11.9% -20.3% 24% 24% -29.9%
all 25 -11.9% -20.3% 24% 24% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 24% -29.9%
10% -27.9% 20% -36.6%
15% -34.9% 20% -42.7%
20% -41.3% 16% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$83 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$380
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage30d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? No 65¢ 52¢ $435 $352 −$83 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? No 17¢ $300 $3 −$297 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $86 +$792 +923%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 25 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $256 −$240 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$143 +159%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 15 $71 −$49 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 28? Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 15 $197 −$138 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 15 $290 −$290 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$11 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 28? May 28 $10 −$7 -68%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 28? May 28 $20 +$2 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on May 27? May 27 $51 +$22 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 27? May 27 $61 +$56 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 27? May 27 $90 +$78 +86%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 27? May 27 $26 −$5 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $445 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 41¢ $57 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 48¢ $199 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $209 15m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 69¢ $733 15m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 46¢ $519 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 77¢ $524 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 41¢ $295 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 17¢ $317 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No $51 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No $43 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No $162 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 45¢ $4 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 45¢ $4 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $859 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No $78 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No $23 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $2 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $2 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 14¢ $48 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 13¢ $88 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $233 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.36 · official $354.36 (match) · 88 history records