Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x74cb…1688 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$269 (+26%) realized +$269 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$271
14 days+$299
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$169
other 30% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +63.7% +48.1% 67% 57% +16.3%
≤30d 24 +61.2% +45.9% 67% 58% +16.9%
≤90d 24 +61.2% +45.9% 67% 58% +16.9%
all 24 +61.2% +45.9% 67% 58% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.9% 58% +16.9%
10% +31.9% 58% +5.7%
15% +19.2% 46% -4.5%
20% +7.5% 33% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +110% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $56 +$28 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $56 +$26 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $12 +$3 +23%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $56 +$49 +88%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $64 +$17 +27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $21 −$5 -23%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $56 −$2 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $57 +$42 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $52 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $27 +$89 +326%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 0 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +656%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $56 +$49 +87%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $56 +$6 +10%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $56 +$14 +25%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +41%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $38 −$8 -21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $57 −$10 -17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 −$3 -6%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 $0 +1%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $18 −$1 -8%
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +90%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $56 +$29 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $84 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $83 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $56 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $56 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $15 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $12 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $92 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 45h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 99¢ $29 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $7 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $16 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 41¢ $52 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $21 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 43¢ $56 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $54 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $55 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $56 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $55 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $88 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 28¢ $6 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 28¢ $6 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $57 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 59¢ $80 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 79¢ $116 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 5d
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 0 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? SELL Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records