Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74c8…e1aa
crypto · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$805 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$800 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$205
Realized−$800
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses41 / 86
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)127 / 134
History coverage237d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 7 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 4? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 5? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 5? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $40 +$11 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 08 $2,745 −$191 -7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $40 +$17 +42%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $40 +$5 +12%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $7 −$4 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $5 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 10 Jan 09 $13 +$7 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 9? Jan 08 $4 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 9? Jan 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $11 +$7 +66%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 24 Dec 23 $23 −$11 -46%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 24 Dec 23 $35 −$6 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 24 Dec 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 24 Dec 23 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 16 $4 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on December 16? Dec 13 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $27 −$6 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $46 −$6 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $53 −$6 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $14 −$2 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 13 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $11 −$2 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $55 −$10 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $70 −$15 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $88 −$15 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $94 −$13 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Dec 08 $16 −$4 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 9 Dec 08 $1 $0 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 9 Dec 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 37% +$73
other 31% +$71
politics 19% −$248
weather 6% −$623
sports 3% −$174
tech 3% +$95
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 25h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 39h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $14 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $781 4d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $45 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 77¢ $30 5d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 5d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $390 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $200 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $195 8d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $385 17d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $6 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $11 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $14 20d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $111 20d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 75% -13.5%
≤30d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 75% -13.5%
≤90d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 75% -13.5%
all 127 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 25% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 25% -14.6%
10% -24.0% 21% -22.8%
15% -31.3% 17% -30.2%
20% -38.0% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.24 · official $205.24 (match) · 796 history records