Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74c8…165f other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$99
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$3
other 46% −$96
crypto 5% +$43
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 46% -13.9%
≤30d 30 -2.6% -11.9% 60% 50% -11.9%
≤90d 30 -2.6% -11.9% 60% 50% -11.9%
all 32 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -11.7%
10% -18.9% 38% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 31% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$37 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage159d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $173 +$23 +13%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $74 +$30 +40%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $188 +$17 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $94 −$51 -54%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $79 +$17 +22%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $26 +$5 +21%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $147 +$30 +20%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 +$11 +40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $104 −$68 -65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $53 −$33 -64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 $0 -3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $105 +$49 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$38 -72%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $74 −$66 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$39 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 −$60 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $156 +$12 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $126 +$8 +6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$17 -66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 +$33 +63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $94 +$34 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 −$62 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 +$23 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$9 +27%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $10 +$4 +45%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $195 18m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 18m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $103 23m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $173 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $21 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $205 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $44 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $188 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 78¢ $19 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $21 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $32 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $176 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $42 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 33¢ $36 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $42 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $105 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $19 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.95 · official $16.95 (match) · 179 history records