Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c7…779e crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-49%) realized −$34 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$12
other 30% −$18
sports 22% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -50.3% -55.0% 16% 16% -63.1%
≤30d 19 -50.3% -55.0% 16% 16% -63.1%
≤90d 19 -50.3% -55.0% 16% 16% -63.1%
all 19 -50.3% -55.0% 16% 16% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 16% -63.1%
10% -59.3% 16% -66.7%
15% -63.3% 16% -69.9%
20% -66.9% 16% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+77%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +186%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +223%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.84 · official $7.02 · 37 history records