Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c5…2b5c crypto 86 markets active 5d ago coverage 746d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-11%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$15
politics 33% −$10
sports 18% −$203
other 12% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 4 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 25% -4.3%
≤90d 10 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 10% -5.6%
all 86 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 1% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 1% -19.4%
10% -23.6% 0% -27.1%
15% -30.9% 0% -34.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage746d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December? Jan 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 06 $26 +$1 +4%
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Nov 06 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 25 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 23 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 25 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 25 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Nov 11 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $45 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 89¢ $40 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 96¢ $19 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $19 23d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? BUY No 95¢ $18 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $19 54d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $18 83d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $20 112d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 112d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? SELL No 97¢ $18 137d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY No 97¢ $18 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $17 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 173d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? BUY No 99¢ $17 173d
Lightning vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $202 223d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 96¢ $26 235d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 97¢ $20 235d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 98¢ $29 265d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 94¢ $15 265d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 96¢ $12 295d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 96¢ $30 295d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 96¢ $13 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 97¢ $28 329d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 357d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $22 357d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 91¢ $21 387d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 91¢ $15 387d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 98¢ $20 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $15 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records