Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74c4…c3e6 politics 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,231 (-3%) realized −$1,188 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 29L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$997per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$20,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$103
other 24% −$1,916
sports 8% −$2,992
world 1% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +26.6% +14.6% 100% 100% +14.6%
≤30d 1 +26.6% +14.6% 100% 100% +14.6%
≤90d 35 -64.1% -67.5% 17% 14% -29.2%
all 35 -64.1% -67.5% 17% 14% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 14% -29.2%
10% -70.6% 11% -36.0%
15% -73.4% 6% -42.2%
20% -76.0% 6% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -56% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$912 vs −$375 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$20,395
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage74d
Avg bet$997
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 20 $1,000 +$266 +27%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 28 $2,340 −$201 -9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 14 $108 −$106 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 14 $1,300 +$362 +28%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $1,000 +$675 +68%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $371 −$371 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $239 −$239 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2,759 +$4,147 +150%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2,623 −$2,546 -97%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $806 −$745 -92%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 11 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $1,000 −$28 -3%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs EKO Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Season Apr 10 $18 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 10 $66 −$15 -23%
Madrid: Elvina Kalieva vs Whitney Osuigwe Apr 09 $142 +$23 +16%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Apr 09 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian C Apr 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian C Apr 09 $139 −$139 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $31 0m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $10 9m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $30 17m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $28 28m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 35m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 49m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 49m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $107 49m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 54¢ $4,803 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 53¢ $1,668 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 53¢ $2,102 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $100 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $7,252 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,634 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $207 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $530 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,234 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $1,060 9h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $265 10h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $498 12h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $86 13h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $97 14h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $103 14h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 14h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $194 15h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $106 15h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 15h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,394.82 · official $20,394.82 (match) · 192 history records