Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74bf…91cc
sports · 35 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$57 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$54 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$30
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 5 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$39
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 47¢ 89¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$28 +276%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $5 +$6 +109%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $5 +$5 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +73%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$50
other 18% $0
crypto 13% +$7
tech 3% +$4
politics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $5 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 57¢ $5 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $5 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $7 28h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $5 4d
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? SELL No $0 4d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Paris Gentle Mates 28¢ $1 5d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Paris Gentle Mates 28¢ $5 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 5d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY No 56¢ $5 7d
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? BUY No 55¢ $5 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire BUY Phoenix Mercury 47¢ $5 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 85¢ $10 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Dallas Wings 59¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +23.9% +12.1% 61% 61% +24.8%
≤30d 30 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +19.2%
≤90d 30 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +19.2%
all 30 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 60% +19.2%
10% -2.2% 60% +7.8%
15% -11.7% 60% -2.6%
20% -20.3% 60% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.12 · official $30.12 (match) · 69 history records